TTG Market Observations & Charts 02-27-23
Quick observations
- Breadth strong
- Bonds TLT +0.2%
- US Dollar -0.4%
- VIX -2% 21.2
- Crude -0.6% Nat Gas +4.7%
- Bitcoin +0.3% Ether +1.2%
Bottom Line: Equities opening up strong, then fading, and trading in a tight range since. In the indices, Dow stocks DIA +0.4% lagging and QQQs. In US Sectors, there is a more of a “risk on” tone with Metals & Mining leading XME +2.7% along w/ Clean Energy areas TAN PBW, and Defensive areas are lagging XLU -0.3% XLP -0.1%
Market Breadth Indicator
% change from open
over $5B market cap company movers (via Bloomberg)
Charts
$ES_F S&P futures Daily chart:
The word that keeps coming to mind here is “SIDEWAYS” Price is consolidating at the 200d and 50d MA as they converge. and right in the middle of the monthly Value Area as well as this week’s (1hr chart below) Value Area.
1hr chart: Price hit its top of value area for the week, watch 4026.75. For now, remains inside value
QQQ (NDX) Daily & 1hr chart:
Price found support at its 200d MA, but still below its 20d and 5d EMA and using the 1hr chart , price is inside its Value Area for the week, see 2nd chart below for short term level to watch.
Relationship Charts I am watching
RHS (Equal Weight Cons Staples) vs RCD (Equal Weight Cons Discretionary)
The Consumer Staples rallied decently against Discretionary for the 1st half of ‘22 as the market was under pressure. In Jan of ‘23 Discretionary led and even know the market has been declining over the last 3 weeks, RHS has not retaken the trend & remains below those Moving Averages. I view this as a positive for the overall market that we are not seeing Defensive areas retake a leadership position so far in ‘23.
XSD (Equal Weight Semis) vs RSP (Equal Weight SPX )
Another Relationship I am finding interesting / important . Why Semis? I think Semis are a sign of “risk on” in the market and when they lead there is a case for a stronger market. After moving sideways for ~ the 2nd half of ‘22 , they are outperforming the SPX Equally Weighted so far in ‘23. Similar to the RHS / RCD relationship there has not been major weakness the last few weeks (so far) in the Semis vs the overall market, which I view as a positive.
Update on TTG weekend watchlist setups, note, all charts setup are posted in TTG Trading room (using Slack)
TSLA - Tesla
A chart to watch for the next couple days in TSLA which has its investor day on 3/1. An upside level to target is $223 VPOC , which lines up with its 200d MA. In my opinion , this $223 level would be a place to take short term profits.
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