Market Observations & Charts 9-6-22

Quick observations (attached audio message for TTG Members, note TTG members receive this email Mon, Wed, Thurs and Midday Live Session Tues)

- Breadth is negative for the day 

- Bonds selloff continues TLT -2.3% (yields jumping higher, 10yr yield +3.33%, +0.15%)

- VIX +6%  27

- US Dollar new highs UUP +0.6% 

- NYMO NAMO extreme

- NQ_F takes out a VPOC on Daily , but more remain and ES lower

Bottom Line: Short term and long trends remains down and NYSI NASI sell signals remain, and the Market Breadth indicator giving another great signal for the day, as the market bounced & the Breadth never really changed that much nor confirmed a change in trend for day.  Ultimately, the market is getting more oversold as indicated by NYMO NAMO (see below) -  however, if we get a fierce bounce this week, confirmation of the trend must been seen which is at the very least, price needs to reclaim the 5d & 20d EMA.  So for me, I continue to stay patient and not force trades especially on the short side given the oversold nature. 

NYMO weekly 

Charts

ES_F S&P futures Daily Chart

Possible bounce spot 3868 VPOC (Virgin Point of Control)

$NQ Nasdaq 100 futures Daily Chart

Downside VPOC taken out, but too soon to tell if that will be bounce area

ENPH Enphase Energy Daily Chart
Seeing call buying today and I am long but if it starts to fade w/ overall market I will have to cut and revisit.  Upside resistance is $299.24

>> 1072 ENPH Nov22 400 Calls $6.949  ASKSIDE  [MULTI] 11:18:08.881 IV=64.8% +2.1 PHLX 56 x $6.30 - $6.95 x 245 PHLX  OPENING  Vol=1073, Delta=18%, Impact=19k/$5.50m, Vega=$36k ENPH=290.88 Ref, OI=92 Earnings 10/25 After Close (est) Premium=$745k  ENER 

NEE Nextera Energy Daily Chart

Nice turn today on broker upgrade (see note below).  Note price is now inside the Sep Value Area & can target $90 for a short term swing. 

NextEra upped at Morgan Stanley as top pick to play renewable energy transition
Carl Surran, SA News Editor
(Seeking Alpha)
NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE) +3.3% in Tuesday's trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded shares to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $99 price target, raised from $94, seeing the utility as one of the top beneficiaries from the Inflation Reduction Act.
The legislation provides subsidies of up to $3/kg for hydrogen gas produced using methods that do not generate carbon dioxide.
"In addition to being the clear U.S. leader in renewables development, NextEra is the only company we cover with a plan to move to true zero carbon emissions, rather than net zero emissions," Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro wrote.
NextEra (NEE) joins several other utilities rated as buys by Morgan Stanley because of favorable ESG characteristics: (AEP), (AES), (CEG), (CNP), (DTE), (EXC), (NRG), (VST).
Arcaro also downgraded Edison International (NYSE:EIX) to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $62 price target, saying the utility is "exposed to several challenging dynamics" including wildfire risk and interest expenses as rates rise.
NextEra Energy's (NEE) dividend is not high, but dividend growth is consistent and high, Leo Nelissen writes in a bullish analysis published recently on Seeking Alpha.

NextEra Energy, Inc. provides sustainable energy generation and distribution services. The Company generates electricity through wind, solar, and natural gas. Through its subsidiaries, NextEra Energy also operates multiple commercial nuclear power units.

PANW Palo Alto Daily Chart

Just watching what develops here, has tested its 50d MA and bouncing.  I would like to see price regain its 200d MA before I try a trade. 

CL_F WTI Crude Daily Chart

Crude has gotten rejected at the bottom of the Sep Value Area 3 days in a row and if breaks range, can target downside VPOC at $86.3

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