Market Observations & Charts 12-21-22
Quick observations (audio message included for TTG members + Slack trading room)
- Breadth very strong
- Bonds ~ flat
- US Dollar +0.3%
- VIX -6% 20
- Crude +2.8% Nat Gas flat
Bottom Line: Nice rebound where price needed to turn (S&P bottom of value & 1hr VPOC) on strong breadth. IWM Small Caps leading a bit this week (see chart below vs QQQ). Bonds are quiet today but I continue to see puts on the tape... for example, there are now 211k open interest on the Mar 95s puts. I continue to focus on short term duration trades while price action remains whippy.
Market Breadth Indicator
% change from open
over $5B company movers
(source: Bloomberg)
TTG Weekend Watchlist Updated (watchlist is sent to TTG Members on Sunday & is starting point for week)
Charts
$ES_F S&P futures Daily & 1hr charts:
A nice move back into the Dec Value Area today, support now 3857.5 and upside watch 50d MA and whether price can stay above 5d EMA. On the 1hr chart, price turned nicely above that 1hr VPOC (red line) and upside resistance to watch is bottom of this week;s Value Area 3947.5
IWM vs QQQ 2yr chart:
Names/ Areas I am watching
KWEB China Internets ETF
Seeing a pickup in call activity today, Put/Call: 8k/22k = 0.35. After a decent amount of digestion on the VPOC take out (red line), price found 20d MA support and is bouncing, I am watching for a move > $31.6 for upside continuation in uptrend. TAL and EDU are on fire in the group.. I am also watching BILI and PDD.
Note I am long KWEB in the TTG Trend Portfolio.
ITA Aero/Defense ETF
Back above the Dec Value Area, I really like this group, in particular BA SPR (which was a bullish trade idea from Monday) LMT NOC and GD.
MTDR Matador
Price back > its 200d MA and a "keep it simple" trade idea is long vs 200d MA. Also note there was a move below its 200d MA back in Sep and regained its 200d MA and rallied decently, That is one reason why I am watching this name.
CEIX - Consol Energy
Held support where it needed to earlier in week and bouncing. I got long CEIX yday.
CAT - Caterpillar
Price moving above its Dec Value Area, really nice strength there, set stop to $273 stop of value for a long trade.
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